There is an interesting piece in the LJWorld this morning about redistricting in 2010 and the ways in which growth in Kansas has happened.
We all know that it’s coming and that the majority of the change will occur in the 2nd District and the 3rd District. I had this discussion with a friend in DC last week and she swore that the KSGOP would do everything it could to keep as much of KU in the 3rd District as possible because if they didn’t, it means resigning the 2nd District to the Democrats.
Regardless of whether Lynn Jenkins wins in November or not the LJWorld article seems to indicate that all of Lawrence will be in CD2 shifting registration to a more solid democratic lead.
“The political blog Swing State Project on Friday speculated about a scenario that would move all of Lawrence and Douglas County into the 2nd District, which Republican Lynn Jenkins now represents. The 3rd District would still include Wyandotte and Johnson counties and gain the northern part of Miami County.
[Alan] Cigler [political science professor at KU] said that could be an option, but it also might not be a sure thing because it would put more Democratic-leaning voters from Lawrence into the 2nd District.
“It will get involved in some political give-and-take in that situation,” he said.”
“The other main redistricting issue for Lawrence is whether it will be divided or shipped all together into the 2nd District. That would also be a historic shift because Lawrence was once all in the 3rd District.
“Our commonality is more with Johnson County than with Horton and Topeka,” said Wint Winter Jr., who represented Lawrence as a Republican in the state Senate during the last redistricting process.
After the 2000 Census, the Legislature essentially split Lawrence in half, moving the western half into the 2nd District.
Opponents in the Legislature at the time complained it was a partisan move meant to strengthen Rep. Jim Ryun, a conservative Republican in the 2nd District, and hurt Moore’s chances at re-election. It didn’t work, at least in the 2006 election when Democrat Nancy Boyda shocked Ryun. Moore has won re-election each time.”
This was such a huge joke, I remember. Bless their little GOP hearts, can’t you just see them saying “this is genius… we’ll solidify Ryun and we’ll finally get rid of Moore… it’ll be great!” Baaaahahaha…. *snort
So here’s the good thing and the bad thing legislatively speaking. Having one university split between two districts is annoying for those who are working with elected officials to fund projects. Which one do you choose? If your project takes place in west campus do you talk to Jenkins? If you’re on The Hill do you work with Moore? It also forces the two electeds to work together to do what they can for KU, this was probably more difficult with Ryun who voted against every single funding bill he was proposed. Jenkins seems to have only voted against most.
The good thing about it being split is that you can always turn to Moore if you have someone like Ryun who refuses to bring our tax dollars back to the district. But then again… Brownback LOVES pork so he’d generally jockey funding bills that Ryun would then vote against that went to CD2.
Here are a few other scenarios:
Scenario 1: The GOP Legislature could just resign to the fact that they’ll never get CD3 and give all of Douglas Co to Moore and then add in to CD2 on the north or south.
Scenario 2: would be to take out all of Douglas but instead of Miami County dig into all of the new development in Leavenworth County like Bashor, more burbs around the Legends. That’s pretty republican around there… Might make things a little harder on Moore, but he’s still got JoCo and WyCo both of which love him. And CD2 still gets all of Douglas County. So the GOP is still screwed.
What Swing State proposed is putting all of Riley Co in CD1, which I don’t see happening. Ft. Riley just got the Big Red One, Boyda got some hella cool projects for them funded, it’s a solid Military county and it needs a Rep. who gets military issues and can have a seat on the Armed Services committee. If Ft. Riley is in CD1 its going to get killed.
Why?
Because CD1 is a solidly red district, there’s no chance they’ll lose it so the House GOP Caucus isn’t going to do the new Rep any favors. The Armed Services Committee has a finite number of spots for people who have larger bases or more bases in their district and the House GOP is more likely to put members there whose seats aren’t safe. That’s not CD1. Add to that we’ll likely be putting Moran in the Senate Seat (if the gossip about Brownback pushing Tiahrt out is true) and Moran has ZERO experience on military issues and Roberts is like 500 years old and one weak heartbeat from the grave.
If you do the RIGHT thing for Kansas (totally non-partisan), you need to keep Riley in the same district as Ft. Leavenworth and Forbes and ensure CD2 has someone on the Armed Services Committee. But that’s only if you care about the military… Partisanly speaking, this is a main reason Laura Kelly is perfect for the Kansas 2nd District…. she’s got a strong military background.
Scenario 3 would be to keep in Coffey, Woodson, Wilson, and add in more of Lyon but then you’re building in another university town, and while its probably more conservative than KU its still more apt to support a moderate than a right winger.
The GOP could gerrymander the hell out CD2 but I agree with Swing State, there aren’t a lot of options available because CD3 is so big now and some of it has to flow into CD2 because there’s no other district to stick it into.
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