With the open seat in the 2010 election in the KS-03 both Democrats and Republicans are hoping to claim it. Recent elections demonstrate that Johnson County has become increasingly competitive for Democrats where it used to be more of a Republican stronghold.
Since 2004 Kansans have elected 7 Democrats to serve in legislative districts previously held by Republicans. Johnson County is home to 5 of those 7 victories. 2002 was the last time a Republican candidate for Congress carried Johnson County. Since that dark year Dennis Moore has been able to keep a strong hold on Johnson County and the it has overall become more competitive for Democrats.
2002:
DENNIS MOORE D 73581 44.15%
ADAM TAFF R 88146 52.89%
2008:
DENNIS MOORE D 141226 51.29%
NICK JORDAN R 123597 44.89%
Let’s not forget that in 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush carried the 3rd District with an 11 point margin. In 2008 Barack Obama carried the district with a 3 point margin. This shows that Johnson County is becoming more favorable for Dems to run. If we look to the registration numbers (below) we can even see that the Republicans are decreasing while Democrats are increasing in the county.
GOP Registration (Johnson County):
• 164,422 – November 1, 2009
• 169,629 – November 2006
General Democratic Registration (Johnson County):
• 83,106 – November 1, 2009
• 71,320 - November 2006
General Unaffiliated Registration (Johnson County):
• 104,535 – November 1, 2009
• 99,656 – November 2006 General
Voters in Johnson County tend to value moderate leadership free of ideological motive, in the tune of Kathleen Sebelius and Dennis Moore more than Party. If you combined the growth of Democrats in Johnson county with the strong hold of Democrats in Wyandotte and Douglas county the GOP doesn’t stand a chance against a Kathleen Sebelius or Dennis Moore style Democrat. These numbers by no means lock up the race for a Democrat but one strong experienced Democrat running against the heard of GOP candidates is sure to cause the GOP some heart ache in the race and produce another Democrat Congressperson from the KS-03.
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